The “God’s Plan” Fallacy

I recently had a conversation with some believers who were describing a series of events that had unfolded, concluding with something like, “we could tell that this was God’s plan.” The potential fallacy involved here is not in ascribing “God’s plan” to the series of events that have taken place. The fallacy involved is in a false premise and a false conclusion drawn from the concept that the events, as they unfolded, were God’s plan.

The fallacy in the premise is that things could have unfolded a different way. The truth is that everything that actually happens is God’s plan. Nothing has ever unfolded in human history that was apart, indifferent, or startling to God’s plan. The confidence we have as believers is that we serve a God who works all things according to His own purposes and will, and that all things are working together for good (Ephesians 1:11-12, Romans 8:28-29).

The underlying misunderstanding is in the terminology that we use and its lack of clarity. The term “God’s will” (or the will of God) is often used to describe God’s plan, but it is also sometimes used to describe God’s desire for human behavior. To take a biblical example, it was not God’s will (desire) that mankind would fall into sin, but it was a part of God’s plan, as evidenced by the description of Christ as “the Lamb slain before the foundation of the world”. It was God’s will that Jerusalem and its inhabitants would be gathered under the protective power of Christ, but it was a part of God’s plan that they would not, ushering in the salvation of the Gentiles (Matt 23:27, Romans 11:11). It was God’s plan to send Joseph to Egypt, but it was not His will that his brothers would indulge murderous envy in their hearts. And the list goes on.

Somehow, the Bible requires us to account for human behavior that is prohibited by God and yet, at the same time, brings to pass God’s greater purposes in human history. The way that I account for this is by making some sort of distinction between events (God’s plan) and human responsibility (God’s will). We want these things to align perfectly. Sometimes they do, but often times they do not. As a result, we can draw the wrong conclusion from declaring a series of events to be “God’s plan”. Namely, that we were justified in our actions.

The central fallacy then goes something like this, “Because I think I can discern God’s plan in this series of events that unfolded, I must have made the right decision.” Let’s see how a character like Judah could have used this fallacy. Judah had been instrumental in stirring up the envy of his siblings to sell Joseph as a slave into Egypt. Years later, when Joseph tells the brothers that it was all a part of God’s plan, should Judah have felt justified in his hatred of Joseph? Obviously not. Other very clear examples in Scripture include the betrayal, arrest, and crucifixion of Jesus as being actions condemned by God while being essential parts of God’s plan (Matt 26:24 cf Acts 2:23).  

Rory Sutherland makes an interesting point about human behavior when he describes our willingness to tell ourselves a story and then “buy it”. Businesses don’t actually have to solve their customer’s problem; they just have to provide a story the customer can tell himself. The example he gives is that train transit in the UK only provides a limited number of seats for travelers, leaving those who have to stand up feeling like second class citizens. But if the railway were to add some feature (such as charging ports or fold-out tablet stands) only available to passengers who stood, then both sets of passengers could tell themselves a story, ie “Well, I didn’t get a charging port, but I’d rather sit down anyway,” or “Well, I didn’t get to sit down, but at least I can charge my tablet and watch a show.”

We all tell ourselves stories, and our stories ameliorate the discomfort of our circumstances and the guilt of our conscience. Thus, we tell ourselves that since such and such happened as a result of our outburst, then our outburst was really justified. The “God’s plan” fallacy strikes as we use the perceived outcome of our behavior to make ourselves feel better (aka, tell a story).

God has put us in a world where we reap what we sow, and therefore all human beings have some desire that upright behavior will result in favorable circumstances (although conversely, our desire to experience adverse consequences for misbehavior is not particularly strong). The majority of the time, this is how we experience life on a personal level. But when it comes to larger issues involving lots of people over time, things get messy. My experience is that most of us judge wrongly when doing real basic work, like trying to see what God’s plan is. We simply don’t have the perspective or the life-span to do well with that. On the other hand, we have an infallible rule of conduct in the Word of God and an infallible guide in the Holy Spirit who can help us determine whether we fulfilled our responsibility in the given situation (ie obeyed God’s will), and then either seek forgiveness for our failures or thank God for the grace that He gave us – all the while leaving the working out of His plan to Him.

Therefore, we should be careful in ascribing a set of circumstances to “God’s plan” as though this justifies our behavior, our attitude, or our behavior. Instead, we should allow for the possibility that we acted like real idiots, but God in His mercy gave us blessings anyway.

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